At Pulse press time, the outcome of the presidential election was still unknown. Even so, there are a few markets to watch no matter which way the nation votes.
Markets are all about predicting what will happen in the future. When it comes to presidential elections, that means making decisions based on who you think will win and the way their policies will affect different markets. To figure out which markets will be most affected by the election, just look at the biggest policy questions and the products that are tied to them.
Analysts agree that the Mexican peso is closely tied to a Trump presidency. His hard stance on Mexico, from building a wall between the nations and dismantling trade deals with our neighbor to the south. The peso will likely suffer under a Trump presidency, while remaining unchanged should Clinton take the election.
Markets for health care have suffered in 2016, serving as the worst performing sector in the S&P 500. This is indicative of both campaigns, as both candidates seek to combat drug pricing. But analysts at Credit Suisse have tied Clinton’s strength in the polls to slumps in health care stocks, indicating that may do more than Trump to challenge the health care industry.
Gold serves as a safe haven when investors fear for a volatile market. Markets seem to indicate that a Trump victory would lead to a more unpredictable future than a Clinton win. In the past few months, when Trump surged in the polls, gold prices surged as well. Meanwhile, investors seem to think Clinton will keep things such as foreign and fiscal policy more or less where they are now. That predictability means people don’t need the safe haven of gold. The metal has been on a steady rise through 2016.
Although not exactly a market, the end of the unpredictable election will also allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to more strongly consider interest rates. When the Fed hiked interest rates for the first time in about a decade in December of last year, it indicated a growing confidence in the nation’s economy. Careful not to make any further bets amid presidential election turmoil, many are looking at the meeting in December as the time in which the Fed will likely bump interest rates again.
But a Trump presidency might keep the Fed cautious. The Republican nominee called for an audit of the Federal Reserve and blames the group for being politically motivated instead of independent fiscal policy makers.
Crop prices (Nov. 7)
Rio Creek Feed Mill – Algoma
|Commodity||Price (per bushel)||Basis|
|New-Crop Wheat (SRW)||$3.79||-0.81|
Fox River Valley Ethanol – Green Bay
Basis: The difference between the local cash price for a commodity and the Chicago cash price (where the Board of Trade sets national futures price).
Gas Price Averages
United States: $2.22
United States one year ago: $2.22
Wisconsin one year ago: $2.36
Northern Door: $2.15
Sturgeon Bay: $2.18
Gold: $1,275.70/troy ounce
Silver: $17.83/troy ounce
Sources: aaa.com, agweb.com, gasbuddy.com, cnn.money, Bloomberg Markets, Wall Street Journal