Pulse Price Report: What About Oil Prices?

After a drop in oil prices to 12-year lows in early 2016, a modest rally has stabilized the commodity to levels that still have oil giants on their heels.

Between January and June of this year, oil prices scraped their way up to more than $50 a barrel, a 60 percent gain from January, but still less than half the price of a barrel five years ago. In June, Morgan Stanley reported that the oil giants stopped going on the hunt for new reserves.

Meanwhile the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a group of the largest oil producers in the Middle East, struck a deal last week to stop the booming production of oil that caused the plummeting prices in the first place.

A recent rise in oil prices has been attributed to this deal that would stem the free flow of oil beyond global demand. But after Iran and Libya reported increased exports, markets are now worried about how effective this production deal really is.

Although Iran and Libya are exempt from the OPEC production limits, their increased production must be offset by a decrease elsewhere, which doesn’t seem to have materialized just yet.

The OPEC deal is a tough one for many oil-producing nations to swallow. In the short term, as production decreases, so does the nation’s revenue from exports as they wait for prices to adjust upward. They need to hold their production levels low long enough to create a demand for the oil, an unknown period of time that some nations might not be able to afford.

If this OPEC deal works as planned, expect a rise in oil and gas prices in the future. On the other hand, if nations abandon this deal and begin drilling to make up for their losses, we could see a further slide in gas prices.

Crop prices (Oct. 4)

Rio Creek Feed Mill – Algoma

Fox River Valley Ethanol – Green Bay

Basis: The difference between the local cash price for a commodity and the Chicago cash price (where the Board of Trade sets national futures price).

Gas Price Averages

United States: $2.23

United States one year ago: $2.29

Wisconsin: $2.23

Wisconsin one year ago: $2.45

Northern Door: $2.30

Sturgeon Bay: $2.24

Other Commodities

Gold: $1,285,90/troy ounce

Silver: $18.37/troy ounce

Oil: $48.93/barrel

Sources: aaa.com, agweb.com, gasbuddy.com, cnn.money, Reuters, Wall Street Journal