Census Figures Confirm Challenges Ahead

If you have been around Door County long enough and if you have been reading my column just as long, you may recollect the columns I wrote following the 2000 Census. Well, the 2010 Census has now come and gone, so with enough time passed to allow for a multitude of data to be released, it is time to take a look at Door County through the latest census results.

I should say at the outset that there are a lot of numbers on this page of the Peninsula Pulse. You are not going to able to digest all of this information quickly, so I encourage you to spend some time – when you have the time – so that you can fully appreciate what these numbers are telling us.

For those who are impatient, the quick extrapolation we can make from this data is that Door County’s population is aging. And while the same was true in the 2000 Census, the degree at which we are aging, based on the 2010 Census results, is alarming.

You can see a more complete comparison of the peninsula’s population according to the two censuses elsewhere on this page, but for our immediate consideration I grouped the data into larger sets.

                                            2000         2010

0 – 19 years                        6,765        5,623

20 – 54 years                      12,584      11,036

55 – 64 years                      3,377        4,881

65 years and older                5,235        6,245

TOTAL POPULATION     27,961       27,785

As you can see in the table above, the first two age groups – reflecting Door County’s population below 54 years of age – decreased. And you can also see that the last two age groups – reflecting residents 55 years of age and older – increased.

But there is another way to look at these numbers: as percentages of the total population in each year. So here’s what happens when you look at each of the age groups above as a percentage of that year’s total population (27,961 in 2000 and 27,785 in 2010). We’ll start with the 2000 Census numbers:

0 – 19 years is 24.2% of the 2000 population

20 – 54 years is 45% of the 2000 population

55 – 64 years is 12.1% of the 2000 population

65 years and older is 18.7% of the 2000 population

Now, when we do exactly the same exercise with the 2010 Census numbers:

0 – 19 years is 20.2% of the 2010 population

20 – 54 years if 39.7% of the 2010 population

55 – 64 years is 17.6% of the 2010 population

65 years and older is 22.5% of the 2010 population

As I mentioned earlier, this drop in our younger population and increase in our older population has been forecast for sometime. The Office of Economic Advisors in the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development first published projections showing this trend in their Door County Workforce Profile in 2000, but the rate of change – as shown by the 2010 Census – is significantly greater than any projections I have seen in the past 10 years.

One of the reasons I grouped the 20 to 54 years of age population in the data shown above is that this age group constitutes the majority of our workforce (or the workforce in any community, for that matter). Thus a decline in this age group means fewer able-bodied workers to provide the services our community requires: our teachers, policeman, utility workers, volunteer firefighters, the people who pick up our garbage, etc.

And consider this, when you look at the narrower age groups within the data, the numbers are even more distressing. Within the 20 to 54 years of age group in the 2010 Census there are 4,607 residents between the ages of 45 and 54, meaning 41.7 percent of the total population in this age group is at the top end of the spectrum.

So what happened to accelerate the “aging” of Door County’s population beyond the existing projections? One clue lies in the 35 to 44 years of age grouping. In the 2000 Census the peninsula had 4,413 residents that fell into this group; but in the 2010 Census this number had decreased to 2,890 residents. Combine this decrease with the decreases seen in the school age children in 2010 Census and you quickly realize that families have been leaving Door County at an accelerated rate. Declining school enrollments throughout the county confirm this conjecture.

The biggest factor in the exodus is, beyond doubt, the staggering national economy. But the underlying problems are the same one’s Door County has battled for years: a largely insulated economy; the seasonality of our economy and a slow construction market; the high cost of living on the peninsula; rising property values; and more money flowing out of the county than into the county over the course of a year.

Reversing this trend is going to be difficult, particularly since some of the factors are beyond our control. But, jobs have to be the starting point. And not just jobs cleaning rooms, waiting tables, or clerking in a “super store.” We need jobs that pay a livable wage while affording families at least a modicum of discretionary income. This is a monumental challenge in our tiny economy, but it is a challenge we are going to have to meet if we are to remain a viable community.